Margin Swim
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For college swim coaches

Know where you finish before the meet starts.

Margin Swim projects what each swimmer will go, scores your dual and conference lineups under the real rules, and puts a range on every number so you can check it against what you know.

Built from public meet results. Nothing to upload to start.

Every projection shows its range. Each figure carries its 80% range, the meet it came from, and how the model did on past seasons. The coach decides; the tool recommends and takes overrides.

Championship outlook
Illustrationfictional teams2,000 simulations
Most likely finish
2nd
1st in 31% of simulations
Projected points
612
80% range 571–655
Gap to 1st
−24
North Ridge 636
North Ridge602–671636
Lakeview571–655612
Granite Falls470–549509
Harbor State318–389352
In the model
1.1Mswims
College meets from 13 conferences, back to 2010, read from the published results.
Dual meets, called before the meet
88%
of winners picked correctly across a pilot program's 51 duals, 2023–26, each projected only from earlier swims.
Championship scoring
145 of 217
conference meets where our scoring reproduces the official team totals within 3%.

Three questions, answered with a number and a range.

Dual meets

Which lineup wins the dual?

Both teams scored under the dual rules, against the ways the other coach is likely to line up. Your rest rules hold: minutes between swims, never three in a row. Each entry says whether the race is open or the place is settled.

Championships

Where will we finish at conference?

Place times and team points before the psych sheet, from this season's swims and how your swimmers have tapered before. Which events run fast this year, and which are soft.

Training

Which training moved the needle?

Practices beside results, group by group, season by season. Stated as the two or three things that changed, never as a verdict.

A projection without its range is a guess.

Ours ships with the range, the seed it came from, and a backtest on seasons the model never saw. When the range is wide, we say so, and we say why.

North Ridge602–671
Lakeview571–655
Granite Falls470–549
Harbor State318–389
Illustrationbar = 80% rangetick = most likelyscale 0–800

Start with last year's meet.

We run your conference championship through the model and send a one-page backtest: our projection beside the psych sheet beside what happened. If it holds up against your memory of the meet, we talk about this season.

Get your free conference backtest